<\/p>\n\n\n\n
D\u00fcnya siyasetinin ana ekseninde \u00f6nemli bir kaymaya neden olan \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonunda fa\u015fizm def edilmi\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki geleneksel Avrupal\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda say\u0131lan Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi iki yeni blo\u011fa kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fakat geleneksel g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131p, fa\u015fizmin def edilmi\u015f olmas\u0131, g\u00fcc\u00fcn ABD ve SSCB\u2019ye kaymas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6tesinde bir anlam ta\u015f\u0131maktayd\u0131. Bu iki g\u00fc\u00e7 aras\u0131nda k\u00f6k\u00fcn\u00fc Bat\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncesinden alan kapitalizm ve kom\u00fcnizm d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerinden hangisinin bundan sonra modernitenin itici g\u00fcc\u00fc olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirlenece\u011fi bir ideolojik m\u00fccadele ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecekti. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
1946 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u015fubat ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f oldu\u011fu doktrinsel konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ABD ile birlikte fa\u015fizme kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele eden fakat daha sonra 20.y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en zalim diktat\u00f6r\u00fc (Service, 2005) olarak an\u0131lacak sevimli \u2018Uncle Joe\u2019ya g\u00f6re \u2018\u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 modern tekelci kapitalizm \u00fczerine kurulan d\u00fcnyadaki ekonomik geli\u015fme ve politik g\u00fc\u00e7lerin ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz bir sonucuydu\u2019 (Stalin, 1946). Ayr\u0131ca Stalin\u2019e g\u00f6re kapitalizm ve kom\u00fcnizm asla bir arada ya\u015fayamazd\u0131. Stalin\u2019in bu konu\u015fmas\u0131 kapitalist Washington\u2019da tehlike \u00e7anlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7almas\u0131na neden olmu\u015ftu. Bu y\u00fczden de D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakan\u0131 James Byrnes Stalin\u2019in konu\u015fmas\u0131 \u00fczerine Moskova\u2019daki el\u00e7ilikten acilen bu konu hakk\u0131nda bir analiz istemi\u015fti (Menand, 2019a). B\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7i Averell Harriman\u2019\u0131n el\u00e7ilik s\u00fcresinin bitmesi nedeniyle bu i\u015f maslahatg\u00fczar George Kennan\u2019a d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Bundan \u00f6ncede SSCB hakk\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerini a\u00e7\u0131k y\u00fcreklilikle merkeze g\u00f6ndermi\u015f oldu\u011fu raporlarda dile getirmi\u015f olsa da bu rapor Kennan i\u00e7in Sovyet yay\u0131lmac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ne kadar tehlikeli oldu\u011funu g\u00f6stermek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a \u00f6nemli bir f\u0131rsatt\u0131. Raporu yazd\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131rada Kennan her ne kadar hasta olsada, eline ge\u00e7en bu f\u0131rsat\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131rmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tarihe \u2018The Long Telegram\u2019 olarak ge\u00e7en ABD D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarihinin en uzun raporunu merkeze g\u00f6ndermi\u015f olan Kennan bu raporu sayesinde So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n ana \u00e7er\u00e7evesini \u00e7izecek Amerikan grand stratejisi olan \u2018\u00e7evreleme politikas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da temellerini olu\u015fturmu\u015ftu. Kennan\u2019a g\u00f6re de kapitalizm ve kom\u00fcnizm birbiriyle uyu\u015fmas\u0131 beklenemeyecek iki farkl\u0131 ideolojiydi. Buz y\u00fczden de Stalin\u2019in bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri garip kar\u015f\u0131lanmamal\u0131yd\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca Kennan\u2019a g\u00f6re tehlike olarak alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 gereken kom\u00fcnizmden daha \u00e7ok SSCB\u2019nin davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131yd\u0131. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Sovyet d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131 her zaman d\u0131\u015f tehlike kayg\u0131s\u0131yla \u015fekillendirilmekteydi. Marksizm SSCB i\u00e7in kendi g\u00fcvenlik kayg\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 ve paranoyalar\u0131n\u0131 kapataca\u011f\u0131 bir incir yapra\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6revi g\u00f6rmekteydi. Bunlara ek olarak ise \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131ndaki fa\u015fizme kar\u015f\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen ortak m\u00fccadele k\u0131sa s\u00fcreli\u011fine yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ge\u00e7ici bir anla\u015fmayd\u0131\u2014modus vivendi\u2014ve SSCB do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi her zaman Bat\u0131\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 oymak i\u00e7in elinden geleni ard\u0131na koymayacakt\u0131 (Menand, 2019a).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Mr. X ve So\u011fuk Sava\u015f<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Kennan\u2019\u0131n yazm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu rapor gizlili\u011fi gere\u011fi sadece belli isimlere ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f ve etki alan\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fakat Mr. X taraf\u0131ndan 1947 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda Foreign Affairs<\/em> dergisi i\u00e7in kaleme al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olan \u2018\u2018The Sources of Soviet Conduct\u2019\u2019 (Kennan, 2019) ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 makale SSCB tehlikesi noktas\u0131nda siyaset, medya ve akademi \u00e7evrelerinde ne olup bitti\u011fi hakk\u0131nda \u00f6nemli sorular akla getirmi\u015fti. Bir\u00e7ok isim taraf\u0131ndan bu y\u00fczden So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n en \u00f6nemli habercilerinden birisiydi. Mr. X\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri Kennan\u2019\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcncelerinden farkl\u0131 olmay\u0131p hatta bir\u00e7ok y\u00f6n\u00fc ile Kennan\u2019\u0131n D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6ndermi\u015f oldu\u011fu raporun bir benzeri olma \u00f6zelli\u011fini ta\u015f\u0131yordu. Mr. X\u2019 e g\u00f6re (Kennan, 2019) ABD\u2019nin agresif \u2018SSCB\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 izleyece\u011fi politikan\u0131n ana unsuru uzun vadeli, sab\u0131rl\u0131 fakat sert ve dikkatli bir \u015fekilde SSCB\u2019n\u0131n geni\u015fleme e\u011filimlerinin \u00e7evrelenmesi olmal\u0131yd\u0131\u2019. Nerede bir Sovyet yay\u0131lmac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 var ise ABD oraya m\u00fcdahale etmeli ve SSCB\u2019nin kendi b\u00f6lgesinin d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131na engel olmal\u0131yd\u0131. Mr. X\u2019in \u00f6nerileri asl\u0131nda Kennan taraf\u0131ndan isimlendirilen ve Ronald Reagan d\u00f6nemine kadar takip edilen \u00e7evreleme politikas\u0131n\u0131n bizzat kendisiydi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n O d\u00f6nemde her ne kadar bu ger\u00e7ek baz\u0131 D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00fcyeleri d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda kimse taraf\u0131ndan bilinmiyor olsa da Mr. X, o s\u0131ralarda D\u0131\u015fi\u015fleri Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 Politika Planlama Personel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc olarak g\u00f6rev yapan The Long Telegram\u2019\u0131n yazar\u0131 George Kennan\u2019\u0131n bizzat kendisiydi. Kennan aktif g\u00f6revi nedeniyle makalesinin Mr. X takma ad\u0131 ile kaleme alm\u0131\u015f ve kaleme al\u0131nan bu makale So\u011fuk Sava\u015f s\u00fcrecini ba\u015flatan en \u00f6nemli eserlerden biri olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc (State Department, 2019). <\/p>\n\n\n\n Liberal D\u00fcnyan\u0131n Kap\u0131lar\u0131 Aralan\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Mikhail Goba\u00e7ov 1988\u2019de Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler toplant\u0131s\u0131 s\u0131ras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi konu\u015fmas\u0131nda art\u0131k Sovyetlerin Do\u011fu Avrupa\u2019da bulunan uydu devletlerin i\u00e7 i\u015flerine kar\u0131\u015fmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ifade etmi\u015fti. Gorba\u00e7ov\u2019un konu\u015fmas\u0131 bu devletlerin demokratikle\u015fmesine ve liberal d\u00fcnyaya uyum sa\u011flamas\u0131na giden yolu a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu konu\u015fma So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n art\u0131k bitti\u011finin ve d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeni bir politik d\u00fczene gebe oldu\u011funun g\u00f6stergesiydi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ile \u00e7ift-kutuplu d\u00fcnyadaki kutuplardan birisi olan SSCB\u2019nin g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinde havlu att\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ilk sinyallerinin g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi Sovyetler \u00fczerine \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir\u00e7ok akademisyen, uzman ve siyasinin akl\u0131na bundan sonra ne olaca\u011f\u0131 sorusunu getirmi\u015fti. Muhakkakt\u0131r bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te en \u00e7ok konu\u015fulan isimlerden birisi daha \u00f6nce Kennan\u2019\u0131nda ba\u015fkanl\u0131k etti\u011fi Politika Planlama biriminde William J. Burn, Gilford John Ikenberry gibi etkileyici isimler ile birlikte 1980li y\u0131llarda \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan Francis Fukuyama\u2019d\u0131r. 1989\u2019da Chicago\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmi\u015f oldu\u011fu konu\u015fmas\u0131ndan sonra The National Interest<\/em>\u2019in edit\u00f6r\u00fc Owen Harris iste\u011fi \u00fczerine Fukuyama kaleme alm\u0131\u015f oldu\u011fu \u201cThe End of History?\u201d ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 makalesinde daha So\u011fuk Sava\u015f bitmeden liberalizmin kendisine alternatif olan tek rakibini de art\u0131k ortadan kald\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirmi\u015fti. Hegelyan bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 ile bakan Fukuyama\u2019ya g\u00f6re tarihin sonu gelmi\u015fti ve liberal de\u011ferler\u2014temsili h\u00fck\u00fcmet, serbest piyasalar ve t\u00fcketici k\u00fclt\u00fcr\u00fc\u2014art\u0131k zaferini ilan etmi\u015fti (Menand, 2019b). Fa\u015fizmle m\u00fccadelede kendini ispat etmi\u015f olan ABD uzun ve y\u0131prat\u0131c\u0131 So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n ard\u0131ndan SSCB\u2019yi tarihe g\u00f6mm\u00fc\u015f, Stalin\u2019in dedi\u011fi gibi kom\u00fcnizm ve kapitalizmin bir arada ya\u015fayamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 herkese g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Hatta Fukuyama\u2019ya g\u00f6re kendisini kom\u00fcnist olarak adland\u0131ran \u00c7in gibi \u00fclkelerde bile siyasi ve ekonomik reformlar liberal y\u00f6nde geli\u015fiyordu ve b\u00f6yle olmaya devam edecekti (Menand, 2019b). Fukuyama buraya kadar iyimser d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnceleri hakk\u0131nda hakl\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyordu. Hatta Fukuyama\u2019n\u0131n tezlerini dile getirmesinden k\u0131sa bir s\u00fcre sonra Sovyetlerin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc Fukuyama\u2019n\u0131n \u00fcn\u00fcne \u00fcn katm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Liberal Uluslararas\u0131 D\u00fczen Par\u00e7alan\u0131yor<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Fukuyama\u2019n\u0131n iyimser fikirlerinin tarihin durmak bilmez \u00e7arklar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ezilmeye mahk\u00fbm oldu\u011funu ilerleyen s\u00fcre\u00e7 g\u00f6sterdi. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Mearsheimer\u2019\u0131n Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order <\/em>ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 son makalesinde dile getirmi\u015f oldu\u011fu gibi tek kutuplu d\u00fcnyan\u0131n bir \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc olan Fukuyama\u2019n\u0131n \u00f6vg\u00fcler dizdi\u011fi liberal uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen zaten ba\u015ftan kusurluydu (Mearsheimer, 2019). \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n biti\u015fi ard\u0131ndan her ne kadar ABD tek kutuplu uluslararas\u0131 sistemde tek kutup olarak bir ba\u015f\u0131na kalsa da ilerleyen d\u00f6nemin g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi gibi k\u0131sa s\u00fcrecek tek kutupluluk kendi i\u00e7erisinde \u00e7ok kutuplu bir d\u00fcnyan\u0131n tohumlar\u0131n\u0131 saklamaktayd\u0131. <\/p>\n\n\n\n \u00c7ok kutuplulu\u011fa evirilen s\u00fcre\u00e7te uluslararas\u0131 sistemin kaderi art\u0131k ABD\u2019nin g\u00f6rece fazla olan g\u00fcc\u00fc ile de\u011fil alttan gelen di\u011fer akt\u00f6rlerin g\u00f6rece az fakat her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha fazla hissedilen g\u00fcc\u00fc taraf\u0131ndan belirlenecekti. Bu noktada da en belirleyici akt\u00f6r yakla\u015f\u0131k 1,4 milyar n\u00fcfusu ile d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun %18,5 k\u0131sm\u0131na sahip olan ve Fukuyama\u2019n\u0131n liberal bir y\u00f6nde ilerledi\u011fini iddia etti\u011fi \u00c7in olacakt\u0131. Fukuyama\u2019y\u0131 hakl\u0131 gibi g\u00f6steren asl\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in Deng Xiaoping ile ba\u015flay\u0131p Sovyet tarz\u0131 ekonomik politikalar\u0131 terk edip ekonomisini liberal de\u011ferler do\u011frultusunda yeniden d\u00fczenlemesiydi(Morrison, 2019, s.5). ABD\u2019li karar al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131n \u0131srarlar\u0131 \u00fczerine 2001 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne \u00fcye olmas\u0131 ise bu noktada bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli ad\u0131md\u0131. Fakat \u00c7in\u2019in liberal de\u011ferleri par\u00e7al\u0131 olarak \u00f6z\u00fcmsemesinin liberalizmin zaferi olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclmesi zaten kendi ba\u015f\u0131na bir kusurdu. \u0130lerleyen s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00c7in\u2019in bu ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n sistemdeki faydalardan yararlanabilmenin bir yolu olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc daha a\u015fik\u00e2r bir bi\u00e7imde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Trump d\u00f6nemi Amerikan d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden de anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere ABD\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi liberal kurumlar \u00fczerine kurulu olan \u2018liberal uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczen\u2019 art\u0131k par\u00e7alan\u0131yor. Bu asl\u0131nda sistemde azalan Amerikan g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn de bir g\u00f6stergesidir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc ABD\u2019nin kurmu\u015f oldu\u011fu uluslararas\u0131 sistemin da\u011f\u0131l\u0131yor olmas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli g\u00f6stergesi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck devletlerin bu sisteme itaat etmemelerinin \u00f6tesinde, b\u00fcy\u00fck g\u00fc\u00e7lerin bu sisteme uyum sa\u011flamay\u0131 art\u0131k ret etmelerinden anla\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Bunun fark\u0131nda olan ABD\u2019li karar al\u0131c\u0131lar dahi uzun s\u00fcre kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na hizmet etmi\u015f bu liberal uluslararas\u0131 sistemin da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sessiz bir \u015fekilde izliyorlar. Bu y\u00fczden i\u00e7inden ge\u00e7mi\u015f oldu\u011fumuz bu s\u00fcreci araf d\u00f6nemi olarak tan\u0131mlamak yanl\u0131\u015f olmayacakt\u0131r. Y\u00fckselen \u00e7ok kutuplulu\u011fa paralel olarak uluslararas\u0131 sistemde g\u00fc\u00e7 siyaseti art\u0131k daha fazla hissediliyor. Devletler kendi g\u00fc\u00e7leri oran\u0131nda devlet davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 bu araf d\u00f6nemine ve bu d\u00f6neminden sonra gelecek yeni d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re \u015fekillendiriyorlar. Art\u0131k liberal de\u011ferlerin her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da h\u0131rpaland\u0131\u011f\u0131, devletlerin daha korumac\u0131 politika izlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131, milliyet\u00e7ili\u011fin liberal de\u011ferleri sallay\u0131p her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha fazla y\u00fckseldi\u011fi bir d\u00fcnyada ya\u015f\u0131yoruz.<\/p>\n\n\n\n ABD-\u00c7in \u0130kilemi<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u00f6yle bir d\u00f6nemde Fukuyama\u2019n\u0131n iddia etti\u011fi gibi \u00c7in\u2019in liberal de\u011ferleri \u00f6z\u00fcmseyici tav\u0131rlar\u0131n tarihin sonunun geldi\u011fi i\u00e7in mi yoksa bu d\u00fczenin \u00c7in\u2019e fayda sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in mi oldu\u011fu hala bir\u00e7ok uzman taraf\u0131ndan tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaktad\u0131r. Fakat bir\u00e7oklar\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde fikir birli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00c7in liberal de\u011ferleri kendisine ABD ile olan g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesinde ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc art\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 bir kalkan olarak kullanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Sun Tzu\u2019nun fikirleri do\u011frultusunda \u00c7in g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesinin kendisinin kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda oldu\u011funun fark\u0131nda olarak uzun s\u00fcre \u2018taoguangyanghui\u2019 kavram\u0131 ile ifade edilen d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck profil politikas\u0131 izlemi\u015ftir (Wolf, 2014). Fakat bu g\u00fcnlerde \u00c7in\u2019in d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck profil politikas\u0131n\u0131 terk etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Her ne kadar \u00c7in\u2019in revizyonist bir g\u00fc\u00e7 olup olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 olduk\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 (Schweller & Xiaoyu, 2011) olsa da muhtemeldir ki \u015fu anki sistem \u00c7in\u2019e rakibi olan ABD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda fayda sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u00fcrece \u00c7in sistem i\u00e7erisinde kalmaktan vazge\u00e7meyecektir. Fakat Van Evera\u2019n\u0131n \u2018windows teorisi\u2019 sinde (Evera, 1999) dile getirdi\u011fi gibi \u00c7in\u2019in uluslararas\u0131 sistemde revizyonist bir politika izleyebilece\u011fi f\u0131rsat alan\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fen g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesine paralel olarak her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha da artmaktad\u0131r. Her ne kadar ABD merkezli bir bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olsa ve ana ak\u0131m\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kmasa da \u00c7in\u2019in ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde kendi sistemini kurmak isteyip, Amerikan hegemonyas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele etmeyece\u011finin bir garantisi yoktur. <\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u00f6yle bir m\u00fccadeleyi kazanabilir mi \u015fu an bunu s\u00f6ylemek i\u00e7in \u00e7ok erken ama Michael Beckley\u2019in Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower<\/em> (2018) adl\u0131 eserinde g\u00f6stermi\u015f oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131dan bakacak olursak her ne kadar \u00c7in \u00f6nemli bir geli\u015fme s\u00fcreci ya\u015fam\u0131\u015f olsa da b\u00f6yle bir m\u00fccadelede \u015fu an i\u00e7in ABD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda kaybetmeye mahk\u00fbm gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcnmektedir. Bu noktada kafa yoran sadece Beckley olmay\u0131p, do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fi ABD ve \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki birbirine ge\u00e7mi\u015f ili\u015fkiler sistemi ve bu s\u00fcrecin uluslararas\u0131 sistemi nereye g\u00f6t\u00fcrece\u011fi konusu bug\u00fcnlerde uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkiler d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 olduk\u00e7a me\u015fgul etmektedir. Graham Allison (2017) \u00c7in ile ABD\u2019nin zaman\u0131nda Sparta ve Atina\u2019n\u0131n yakaland\u0131\u011f\u0131 tuza\u011fa yakalan\u0131p yakalanmayacaklar\u0131 merak ederken, Mearsheimer (2014) \u00c7in\u2019in ABD kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda bu y\u00fckseli\u015finin bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l olup olmayaca\u011f\u0131 sorgulamaktad\u0131r. Fareed Zakaria (2019) liberal olmayan bask\u0131c\u0131 politikalar izleyen \u00c7in\u2019den korkulmamas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini dile getirirken, Kissinger (Chandler & Elegant 2019) ABD ile \u00c7in\u2019in yeni bir so\u011fuk sava\u015f\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde oldu\u011funu dile getirmektedir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u00fct\u00fcn bu sorulardan ve iddialardan anla\u015f\u0131lan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n yeni bir g\u00fc\u00e7 kaymas\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fi\u011finde oldu\u011fudur. \u00c7in bug\u00fcne kadar kendini uluslararas\u0131 sistemden m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funca yal\u0131t\u0131p, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi sa\u011flamaya odaklanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Her defas\u0131nda \u00c7inli karar al\u0131c\u0131lar bu ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yay\u0131lmac\u0131 bir amac\u0131 olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dile getirseler de Realizme giri\u015f dersinde bir\u00e7ok \u00f6\u011frencinin \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015f oldu\u011fu gibi devletlerin niyetleri liderlerin veya \u00fcst d\u00fczey g\u00f6revlilerin s\u00f6zlerinden anla\u015f\u0131lamaz. \u00c7in\u2019in ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde bu ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc silahl\u0131 bir g\u00fcce \u00e7evirip, sonras\u0131nda ise b\u00f6lgedeki Amerikan hegemonyas\u0131na son vermek istemeyece\u011finin, hatta yay\u0131lmac\u0131 politikalar izlemeyece\u011finin bir garantisi yoktur. Hatta \u00c7in\u2019in artan askeri kapasitesi dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00c7in\u2019in bu ekonomik g\u00fcc\u00fc daha bug\u00fcnden askeri g\u00fcce \u00e7evirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fclmektedir. 2014 y\u0131l\u0131ndan 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n nisan ay\u0131na kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcrede tonaj olarak \u00c7in b\u00fct\u00fcn Japon donanmas\u0131n\u0131n toplam\u0131ndan daha fazla, G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayvan donanmalar\u0131n\u0131n ise iki\u015fer kat\u0131ndan daha fazla sava\u015f gemisini suya indirmi\u015ftir. Bunlara ek olarak ise \u00c7in Kom\u00fcnist Partisi\u2019nin y\u00f6netimindeki \u00c7in\u2019in ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme temelli otokrat sistemi bug\u00fcnlerde bir\u00e7ok d\u00fcnya lideri taraf\u0131ndan dikkatle takip edilmekte ve benimsenmektedir. <\/p>\n\n\n\n B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar ortada iken \u00c7in\u2019i sadece ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye talip olan uluslararas\u0131 sistemin bar\u0131\u015f mele\u011fi ya da kom\u00fcnist parti alt\u0131nda olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen liberal d\u00fcnyaya kendini eklemlemi\u015f, tarihin sonuna do\u011fru akan liberalizm nehrine uyum sa\u011flayan bir akt\u00f6r olarak g\u00f6stermek ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan fazla iyimser olacakt\u0131r. Uluslararas\u0131 sistemin anar\u015fik oldu\u011fu ve b\u00fct\u00fcn devletlerin kendilerini koruma i\u00e7 g\u00fcd\u00fcleri ile daha fazla g\u00fc\u00e7 biriktirmek i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli politikalar izlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131klar\u0131 ger\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulundurulunca \u00c7in\u2019in kendi \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak i\u00e7in uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki b\u00fct\u00fcn a\u00e7\u0131klardan yararlanmaya devam edece\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6r\u00fclecektir. Tarih ak\u0131yor ve g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmelere bak\u0131nca \u00c7in\u2019in ger\u00e7ek niyetlerinin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fcn \u00e7okta uzakta oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenemez. Obama\u2019n\u0131n \u2018Pivot to Asia\u2019 politikas\u0131ndan da anla\u015f\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 \u00fczere bir zamanlar Mr. X\u2019in makalesi ile ABD\u2019nin hedef tahtas\u0131na oturan Sovyetler gibi \u00c7in\u2019de her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha fazla Amerikal\u0131 karar al\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n radar\u0131na girmektedir. Her ne kadar Trump artan \u00c7in tehlikesine kar\u015f\u0131 gerekli \u00f6nlemleri almaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor olsa da ABD kamuoyunda \u00c7in konusunda hala kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131 devam etmektedir. Fakat bir zamanlar Stalin\u2019i Uncle Joe olarak g\u00f6ren, ona \u00f6vg\u00fcler dizenlerin ilerleyen d\u00f6nemde Stalin i\u00e7in y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n en zalim lideri olarak g\u00f6sterdikleri hat\u0131rlan\u0131nca, bug\u00fcn \u00c7in\u2019in bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l faaliyetler i\u00e7inde bulundu\u011funu iddia edenlerin yar\u0131n \u00c7in i\u00e7in neler diyecekleri hala \u015f\u00fcphelidir.\u00a0\u00a0Fakat g\u00fcncel olaylar\u0131n seyri takip edildi\u011finde g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi gibi ABD kamuoyunda \u00c7in konusundaki kafa kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 giderecek yeni bir Mr. X\u2019in ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 \u00e7ok uzun zaman almayacakt\u0131r. Belki de bu sefer ba\u015fka bir s\u00fcrpriz ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Mr. X d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclenin aksine Amerika\u2019dan de\u011fil \u00c7in\u2019de \u00e7\u0131kacak ve \u00c7in, Van Evera\u2019n\u0131n dile getirdi\u011fi gibi a\u00e7\u0131lan pencereleri f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirip ABD hegemonyas\u0131na farkl\u0131 ara\u00e7larla son vermenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 arayacakt\u0131r. Yirmi birinci y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n Mr. X\u2019inin kim olaca\u011f\u0131, nereden \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 ve ne gibi politikalar \u00f6nerece\u011fi hala belirsiz olsa da yak\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak oldu\u011fu muhtemeldir.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n Bu yaz\u0131 Ebuzer Demirci taraf\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye Notlar\u0131 dergisinin dokuzuncu say\u0131s\u0131 i\u00e7in kaleme al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. <\/p>\n\n\n\n D\u00fcnya siyasetinin ana ekseninde \u00f6nemli bir kaymaya neden olan \u0130kinci D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131 sonunda fa\u015fizm def edilmi\u015f, g\u00fc\u00e7 dengesi uluslararas\u0131 sistemdeki geleneksel Avrupal\u0131 akt\u00f6rlerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda say\u0131lan Amerika Birle\u015fik Devletleri ve Sovyet Sosyalist Cumhuriyetler Birli\u011fi\u2019nin ba\u015f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ekti\u011fi iki yeni blo\u011fa kaym\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fakat…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":623,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[14,88],"tags":[51,64,67,27,61,53,66,62,65,63,40],"class_list":["post-622","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ebuzer-demirci","category-uluslararasi-politika","tag-abd","tag-buyuk-guc-mucadelesi","tag-cin","tag-ebuzer-demirci","tag-george-kennan","tag-kuresel-sistem","tag-liberal-uluslararasi-duzen","tag-mr-x","tag-soguk-savas","tag-the-long-telegram","tag-turkiye-notlari"],"gutentor_comment":0,"views":11,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=622"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":624,"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/622\/revisions\/624"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/623"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=622"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=622"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/turkiyenotlari.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=622"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n